FAB CE summer 2023 traffic demand forecasts: an uneven and volatile recovery

The latest traffic forecasts for the summer 2023 season for FAB CE states suggest the continuing traffic recovery in Europe will push overall flight numbers above the pre-pandemic levels of 2019 for the first time, but with high levels of volatility when measured on a daily basis.

The traffic forecasts - based on data provided by the Eurocontrol Network manager, extracted and formatted for the FAB CE region by SloveniaControl - confirm earlier FAB CE predictions that 2023 summer traffic would overall exceed 2019 pre-COVID levels, but with wide variations among alliance members.

“For Croatia, Hungary and Serbia the recovery has been particularly strong,” according to Matej Eljon, FAB CE Programme Manager and Director of FAB CE Aviation Ltd. “But traffic levels in the Czech Republic and Slovakia are forecast to remain below 2019 levels for some time.”

“We are also seeing significant differences in the daily peaks and troughs of demand among alliance members,” said Matej Eljon, “with some states able to plan resource deployment in response to relatively smooth predicted levels of demand while other face volatile fluctuations.”

Eurocontrol’s June 2 European Network Operational Rolling Plan forecasts traffic demand levels in the FAB CE region to be some of the highest in the continent, with some alliance members facing  increases of between 11% and 15% over 2022.