FAB CE traffic forecast: summer schedule traffic “will see steep increases over 2019”

According to traffic forecasts provided by the Eurocontrol Network manager, extracted and formatted for the FAB CE region by SloveniaControl, the start of the airlines’ summer season in April this year will see traffic demand exceed 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic – with a considerable business rebound.

“There is a steep increase of forecasted traffic in the first days of the summer schedule,” according to Matej Eljon, FAB CE Programme Manager and Director of FAB CE Aviation Ltd. “Part of the increase is related to Easter break but we can still expect a very strong start to the summer traffic pattern. Indeed, the forecasts suggest that we need to plan for increases in up to 20% in some sectors, measuring movements in 2023 against 2019, considerably more than many earlier forecasts predicted.”

Throughout the European network for the first weeks of the summer schedules the daily average traffic increase is approximately 2,500 flights per day compared to the winter schedules, according to Eurocontrol, which has strongly recommended air navigation service providers (ANSPs) plan for a buffer in the expected traffic demand to avoid sudden capacity issues.

“There are clear indications that increased traffic demand among FAB CE ANSPs is being driven now by more than just re-routing of trajectories to avoid the conflict area in Ukraine,” said Matej Eljon. “But the increase in demand is not evenly spread and is therefore still subject to some considerable variations. While Croatia can expect to see increases of 20% in air traffic at the start of the 2023 summer schedule compared to 2019, in other areas, such as Austria and Hungary, the increases are likely to be far more modest.”